Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods
Published in AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2024
This paper compares the ability of several econometric and machine learning methods to nowcast GDP in (pseudo) real-time. The analysis takes the example of Dutch GDP over the period 1992Q1–2018Q4 using a broad data set of monthly indicators. It discusses the forecast accuracy but also analyzes the use of information from the large data set of macroeconomic and financial predictors. We find that, on average, the random forest provides the most accurate forecast and nowcasts, whilst the dynamic factor model provides the most accurate backcasts.
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Recommended citation: Pick, A., Kant. D and J.M. de Winter (2024), Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods, AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, forthcoming, 1-24.